avinash.godbole

संयुक्त प्रगतिशील गठबंधन की विदेशनीती: आत्मविश्वास का अभाव अविनाश गोडबोले 2009 मे हुए चुनाव के बाद फिर एक बार कॉंग्रेसके नेतृतवमे संयुक्त प्रगतिशील गठबंधन ने सरकार बनाया . इन चुनाओमे वामपंथी दल और समाजवादी पार्टी जैसे भूतपूर्व साथियोंको भारी नुकसान हुआ और UPA मे कॉंग्रेस का स्थान मज़बूत हो गया . इसका यह परिणाम अपेक्षित था के नयी सरकार एक सकारात्मक विचारधारा लेकर आगे चलेगी और देशके भविष्य के बारेमे दिशा दर्शक काम करेगी . 1996 से 2009 तक भारतमे बने हरेक सरकार मे मुख्य पार्टी कमज़ोर रही है और प्रादेशिक अथवा वैचारिक गठबंधन डालो की स्थिति मज़बूत और निर्णायक रही है. परिणामी सरकारोँकी नीतीयाभी छोटे दलोँके हितअनुसार बदलती रही है. जब 2009 के चुनाव मे कॉंग्रेस ने सबसे ज़्यादा सीट्स पाई थी. तब यह अंदाज़ जताया गया था की उसकी मज़बूती उसके आत्मविश्वास मे परिवर्तित हो सकती है लेकिन पिछलेएक साल का विश्लेषण करतहुए भारतीय विदेशनीतिमे ऐसा कोई बदल या ऐसी कोई घोषणा दिखाई नही दी है. 26/11 के हमलो के बाद पाकिस्तान पर दबाव डालकर वहांके सरकार क...

Google China ‘Warfare’:  Turning a non issue to win-win strategy Avinash Godbole and Gunjan Singh After months of talking and debating, Google finally decided to withdraw its services from mainland China. Google had announced in January 2010 that it will close its search portals in China due to the strict monitoring by the Chinese government and also because of continuous hacking. On March 22, 2010, Google decided to route the searches for mainland China from its Hong Kong portal, where it is not bound to sensor its results. But this resulted in the Chinese government’s internet filters getting into action, thus resulting in complete internet disconnection or display of error messages instead of search results. Google’s revenue model is based on internet search and what is referred to as ‘pay per click’ or ‘pay per display’ method. So besides google and its user, this model requires a seller willing to advertise a product/content through google and ready to pay for it. In case o...

Contradictory Tendencies in the India-China Relationship: Does it help the bilateral relationship? In the last one year, India and China have had a contradictory relationship. And in more ways than one, what happened in the last one year epitomises the future of the relationship between the two countries. On the one hand, trade and investment figures are touching a new high each year, bilateral visits and interactions at multiple levels have increased manifold, trust on each other’s activities and intentions in multilateral forums is at a never seen before high. At the same time, bilaterally, there has been a gradual downswing since for the first time the Chinese Ambassador to India claimed Arunachal Pradesh as part of China in late 2006. Add to it the list of cross border intrusions by the Chinese forces, the media outcry in India over the intrusions, the role of Chinese media over the Dalai Lama and Chinese media’s ignorance about the nature of Indian media, the picture becomes as g...

अफ़ग़ानिस्तान   शांति   प्रक्रिया :   अपेक्षा   और   विकल्प (my article in HIndi, to be published soon, sorry for the language but this is the best I could do!) अफ़ग़ानिस्तान मे आतंकवाद के खिलाफ चल रहा युद्ध आब अंतिम चरण मे आ गया है और आनेवाले अधिकतम दो वर्षोमे इसका समाधान अपेक्षित है . अमरीकी युध ने एक और बार यह स्पष्ता किया है के कोई भी अफ़ग़ानिस्तान मे आकर लड़ सकता है लेकिन वहाँ जीतना लगभग नामुमकिन है . अमरीकाकी निष्कास कूटनीति इस एक कटु सत्य का विवरण है . इतिहास बताता है कि अफ़ग़ानिस्तान का भौगोलिक स्थान उस देशकी राजनीतिक स्थिरता के लिए एक अभिशाप बन गया है और   आधुनिक आंतरराष्ट्रीय राजनीति के समय मे उसे यहा स्थिरता नहीं मिल पाई है . अब यहा सवाल सबसे बड़ा है के क्या अमरीकी निष्कास के बाद इस युद्धसे बेजार राष्ट्रको स्थिरता प्राप्त होगी या फिरसे अराजकता नियंत्रण लेगी ? शान्ती प्रक्रियामे रूचि रखनेवालो के लिए आज अराजकता की आशंका ...

2009 in the Indian Diplomacy: Watershed or overhyped? (the expanded version of this comment is on the IPCS website as a Issue Brief ) It is a glass containing 50 percent water of its actual capacity. It is going to depend on one’s perspective whether one sees a glass half full or half empty. The larger trend about India’s diplomacy in the 2009 is the story of the perspectives as divergent as about the glass! The 26/11 dossier, elections, Sharm al Sheikh, State visit to United States, Copenhagen and twittering are some of the keywords of the diplomacy from the year gone by. In 2009, India’s diplomacy and foreign policy was a mix bag with equal mix of the positives and the negatives. The year 2009 began in the backdrop of 26/11. The Indian Prime Minister chose not to go to war with Pakistan over that issue. History will judge his wisdom on this decision but as of now he seems to have taken right steps vis-à-vis the terrorism emerging from Pakistan. The year began with the handing over...

Obama's East Asia Wish List The President of the United States, Barak Obama is visiting various countries in East & Southeast Asia from the 13 th of November 2009. That he chose East Asia as his first stop in Asia as the US President underlines the importance of the region for his regime and for the United States as such. At its basic, Obama’s Asia visit has three major agenda points; North Korea, trade imbalance and trade war with Japan and China and the future of Climate Change. Besides these issues of immediate importance, there are other issues of particular American interest in East Asia. Obama will try to reassert the importance of the American military umbrella for the region, something which is being doubted by the present day Japan under the newly elected Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. The Democratic Party of Japan has signalled its wish for a more independent foreign policy. In the first few days of the Hatoyama government, the US has shown some flexib...