avinash.godbole

Thus it appears as if after pulling out a credible Iran deal, one which has enough checks and balances as well as involvement of other like-minded countries, The US President   Donald Trump gave away a lot in Singapore in return little verifiable in return from Kim. It appears as if North Korea, a de-facto nuclear power, is the bigger winner out of the Singapore summit. Donald Trump did have his moment of unilateral glory in Singapore but if Japan and South Korea came out on top, then they would have more reasons to worry. Moreover, China’s headaches would rise were they to act on those worries. Until the Singapore summit, Donald Trump and Kim Jong un had fairly same reasons for direct talks. For Trump it was his desire to stamp the American supremacy. He sought to show China its place, after years of engagement policy by Obama by first completely discrediting the Six Party talks which were not only China-initiated but also China-led. He used social media on one...

(from Herald Sun) Recent political and social developments in Hong Kong seem to indicate that China’s  one country, two systems  model is facing its most substantive challenge so far. Whether or not this issue is settled quickly and amicably would have long term implications for the mainland China-Hong Kong relations. It will also have implications for the future of China’s relations with Taiwan, in particular if the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is seen to be going back on the promises it made to the people of Hong Kong in 1997. At its core, it is a tussle between Beijing's desire for control in the name of stability and Hong Kong's wish for greater democratic space and less interference. My article on the fate of Hong Kong elections was published on IDSA website. Here is the link.

Earlier this month, a White Paper titled “Progress in China's Human Rights in 2012” was released. This is the first major policy document focussing on the domestic situation to come out during the new leadership and soon after the biennial publication of the Defence White Paper. Like the Defence White Paper, the document on Human Rights comes out once every two years. But unlike the former, it does not generate the hype. For China, it is an exercise in projecting its inclusive growth and sensitivity towards the marginalised and no longer seen as contestation with the West since issues like trade, tariff and currency have taken centre stage. The context and timing of this paper is significant as it surveys the wide spectrum of social issues and the challenges facing China. These issues have been central to the Xi-Li's leadership since coming to power recently. The reported number protests over issues concerning environmental, employment and land ownership have crossed 100,0...

Photo from ABC News Australia Beijing and other major cities in China are under cover of thick pollution. I am not happy. Its one of those things that makes you think of the priorities that the humanity has accorded to growth, as much as possible, as fast as possible and no matter at what cost. Hopefully China will do some tough and sincere introspection to come up with adequate and effective solutions. Read my commmentary on this subject on the IDSA website

अध्यक्ष आणि पंतप्रधान बदलले, म्हणून मार्च २०१३ पासून चीनमध्ये नवी धोरणे येणार नाहीत. पण धोरणांमध्ये जे बदल होतील, ते कशा प्रकारचे असतील, याचा हा वेध.. चीनच्या नेत्यांपुढील आव्हानांचाही पाढा वाचणारा.. My article  on the power transition in China  was published in Loksatta on 14 November 2012 . let me know your comments and remarks

China's transformation enters another important stage with the unveiling of the fifth generation of the leaders of the communist party. My commentary on the new leaders and the expectations from them is here on the IDSA website

Xi Jinping is back! however, the manner in which he disappeared and the extent to which this gave rise to a series of rumors inside and outside China should be treated as a wake up call especially because the leadership remain tight lipped about the whole episode and its causes. Here is my recent commentary on the  IDSA webiste  on this subject.

The People’s Republic of China continues to give out contradictory signals on the question of ethno-religious identity among its minorities. While its desire for economic prosperity in Xinjiang may be achievable, it has not seemingly found any solution to the sense of alienation felt by the local Uighurs. In yet another instance that demonstrates this dichotomy clearly, the provincial authority in Xinjiang has advised some sections of the ethnic Uighur Muslim citizens of the province, including Party cadres, civic officials and students, to “eat properly, study and work” during the holy month of Ramadan. This order remains in place in Hotan and Kashgar, which had witnessed ethnic violence in the recent past. The instruction proffering this advice also goes on to clarify that it is only a directive and that the authorities are not forcing the people to eat during Ramadan.  However, other reports suggest that a statement in this respect urges the “party leaders to bring "gifts...

IDSA's China Year Book 2011 is now published and available online . My Chapter is on the political developments. I welcome your comments!