avinash.godbole

In my recently submitted PhD thesis I took a quick look at the Foxconn model of China's engagement with the world economy. Sharing that section here as Foxconn enters India with a $5bn commitment to investment in an industrial park. While investment is welcome, India must learn from mistakes that China made in the past 30 years and try and avoid them.  Of course, workers' exploitation and suicides by Foxconn workers is a known issue and not going to intervene into it here.  (of course, if one is interested in knowing how factories like Foxconn work, one must read Leslie Chang's Factory Girls ) Foxconn, Apple and iPad: China and the issue of Value-Addition Apple’s iconic product iPad is produced in China by Foxconn Inc., which is a registered company in Taiwan. During 2010-2011, Foxconn was embroiled in a major controversy over labour abuse issues after it came to light, following a spate of worker suicides, that the workers at the iPad production fac...

Narendra Modi's visit to Mongolia was the first by an Indian PM.  Here are my talking points on that visit from a meeting-presentation. India was the first country to recognise Mongolia apart from the Soviet Bloc Mongolia was the cosponsor of the UN resolution in 1972, along with Bhutan and India, that recognised Bangladesh. India’s first Ambassador in Mongolia was Sonam Norboo, hailing from Ladak ------------------------------------ Mongolia is also seeking to expand its foreign relations with countries other than China and Russia under the policy of “Third Neighbour”. During most of the 20th century, Mongolia, due to its close links to Moscow, was said to be a country in Eastern Europe, not East Asia, where it is geographically positioned. 90 percent of Mongolian exports, most of it minerals, copper, gold, uranium and coal, go to China. China has always pressurized Mongolia for its relations with the dalai Lama, during his last visit in 2011, China lodged strong pro...

पंतप्रधान नरेंद्र मोदी यांनी १४ ते १६ मे असे तीन दिवस चीनचा दौरा केला. ह्या दौऱ्यात अनेक असे महत्वपूर्ण करार झाले ज्यामुळे भारत आणि चीन मधील आर्थिक संबंध मजबूत होतील.  मोदींच्या दौऱ्यात भारत आणि चीनने एकूण २४ सामंजस्य कार्रंवार स्वाक्षऱ्या केल्या ज्याचे एकूण आर्थिक मूल्य २२०० करोड़ इतकी आहे. एकूणच चीन पुढच्या काही वर्षात इतकी गुंतवणूक भारतात करेल. गेल्या एक वर्षात मोदी सरकारने एक सकारात्मक आणि क्रियाशील विदेशनीती अवलंबिली असून चीन, मंगोलिया आणि दक्षिण कोरियाचा दौरा ह्या नव्या विदेश नितिची उदाहरणे आहेत. ह्या अधि मोदिंनी  नेपाल, भूटान, जापान, ऑस्ट्रेलिया, अमेरिका, कॅनडा, श्रीलंका, मॉरिशस इत्यादि देशांना भेट दिली होती.   चीन हा भारतचा सर्वात शक्तिशाली शेजारी देश आहे आणि एक वैश्विक महासत्ता आहे . पण भारत चीन सम्बन्ध १९६२ च्या युद्धच्या सावलीतून अजूनही बाहेर आलेले नहित. तसेच सिमा रेशा वाद आणि अक्साई चीन आणि मैकमोहन लाइन विषयीचा वाद अजूनही पूर्णतः सुटलेला नही. तसेच दोन्ही देश सामरिक दृष्टया शक्तिशाली आहेत. त्यामुळे एकूणच सम्बन्ध गुंतागुं...

(from Herald Sun) Recent political and social developments in Hong Kong seem to indicate that China’s  one country, two systems  model is facing its most substantive challenge so far. Whether or not this issue is settled quickly and amicably would have long term implications for the mainland China-Hong Kong relations. It will also have implications for the future of China’s relations with Taiwan, in particular if the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is seen to be going back on the promises it made to the people of Hong Kong in 1997. At its core, it is a tussle between Beijing's desire for control in the name of stability and Hong Kong's wish for greater democratic space and less interference. My article on the fate of Hong Kong elections was published on IDSA website. Here is the link.

अमाप लोकसंख्या हे ओझे नसून श्रमबळाच्या दृष्टीने ती जमेची बाजू आहे, हा विचार चीनच्या सत्तावर्तुळात रुजत आहे. तसेच भविष्यात वृद्धांचीच संख्या कमालीची मोठी असेल त्यामुळे आर्थिक महासत्ता बनूनही हा देश जराजर्जरच ठरेल, या भीतीतून ‘घरटी एकच मूल’ या धोरणाचा फेरविचार सुरू आहे. चीनचे लोकसंख्या धोरण सध्या पुन्हा प्रसिद्धी माध्यमांमध्ये चर्चेत आले आहे. याचं कारण म्हणजे, ‘हम दो हमारा एक’ अशा कठोर भूमिकेचा चीन सध्या फेरविचार करीत असून २०१५ नंतर या धोरणात बदल होण्याची चिन्हे आहेत. निवडक आर्थिक स्तरावरील जोडप्यांना एकपेक्षा अधिक मुलाला जन्म देण्याची परवानगी नव्या धोरणानुसार लाभणार आहे. सुधारित धोरण ऑक्टोबर महिन्यात जाहीर होण्याची शक्यता आहे. गेल्या काही वर्षांत चीनच्या लोकसंख्या धोरणावरून बराच गहजब झाला होता. या धोरणातील त्रुटी उघड होत होत्या आणि सामान्य जनतेतही त्याबद्दल वाढता असंतोष होता. my article on China's population policy and the possible changes in it was published in Marathi Daily Loksatta on 26 August 2013. Click here to read the rest of the full article.

Photo from ABC News Australia Beijing and other major cities in China are under cover of thick pollution. I am not happy. Its one of those things that makes you think of the priorities that the humanity has accorded to growth, as much as possible, as fast as possible and no matter at what cost. Hopefully China will do some tough and sincere introspection to come up with adequate and effective solutions. Read my commmentary on this subject on the IDSA website

अध्यक्ष आणि पंतप्रधान बदलले, म्हणून मार्च २०१३ पासून चीनमध्ये नवी धोरणे येणार नाहीत. पण धोरणांमध्ये जे बदल होतील, ते कशा प्रकारचे असतील, याचा हा वेध.. चीनच्या नेत्यांपुढील आव्हानांचाही पाढा वाचणारा.. My article  on the power transition in China  was published in Loksatta on 14 November 2012 . let me know your comments and remarks

China's transformation enters another important stage with the unveiling of the fifth generation of the leaders of the communist party. My commentary on the new leaders and the expectations from them is here on the IDSA website

More than once, nationalism has come to the rescue of the CPC in the past. This year as it heads to the power transition, many instances have been used to stoke the nationalist feelings among the common Chinese  citizen. My detailed commentary on the subject is now on the CSC-IITM website .

The 2009 riots occurred because of the deep-rooted ethnic biases prevalent in Chinese society, coupled with the state’s hard handed approach and the sense of deprivation among Uighurs. Perceptive to the problem and alert to the situation, the Chinese government has introduced more economic incentives for the local population. However, the deep-rooted causes of the tension remain unresolved and repeated instances of violence only show that some of the policies may be backfiring. In a year in which China will see a political transition, Xinjiang is marked by an uneasy peace. Chinese leaders will be hoping that there is no more trouble at a time when stability remains their paramount objective. All the same, they will leave no stone unturned in their search for what is proving to be an elusive stability in the region. Summary of the Issue Brief published yesterday on IDSA, the full article can be accessed here

New Delhihosted its first BRICS Summit on 29th of March 2012. The BRIC grouping, comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China has come a long way since they started meeting in 2009. With the inclusion of South Africa in the group in last year’s Summit in Sanya, China, it has become stronger not only in numbers but also more representative in terms of its geographic spread. The New Delhi Summit promises to take the group forward.   Introduction to my article on BRICS published on the IITM-CSC website on 29th March 2012.

India China relationship can be improved if accomodative approach is taken ignoring the hardliner views.  This is the core argument of my article that appears in today's China Daily. For full article see  http://goo.gl/bvt6h

साऊथ चीन समुदामध्ये व्हिएतनाम आणि ओएनजीसी विदेशच्या तेल संशोधन कार्यामुळे आपली स्वायत्तता भंग होत आहे, असा कांगावा चीनने सुरू केला आहे. धमकीवजा इशारेही दिले जात आहेत. परिणामी सुधारणेच्या दिशेने वाटचाल करणाऱ्या भारत-चीन संबंधांना पुन्हा नकारात्मक दिशा मिळण्याचा धोका दिसत आहे.  ................  साऊथ चीन समुदामध्ये विएतनाम आणि ह्रहृत्नष्ट विदेशच्या तेल संशोधन आणि विकसन कार्यामुळे आपली स्वायत्तता भंग होत आहे, असा कांगावा चीनने सुरू केला आहे. त्याचप्रमाणे, चीनच्या Global Times या राष्ट्रवादी वर्तमानपत्राने, 'या क्षेत्रात कार्यरत होणाऱ्या अन्य पक्षांना गंभीर परिणामांना सामोरे जावे लागेल, असा धमकीवजा इशारा असलेला लेख छापला आहे. ह्या सर्व गोष्टींमुळे सुधारणेच्या दिशेने वाटचाल करणाऱ्या भारत-चीन संबंधांना पुन्हा नकारात्मक दिशा मिळण्याचा धोका दिसत आहे. आजच्या परिस्थितीत भारत आणि चीन हे अतिशय वेगाने वाढणारे देश आहेत आणि त्यांचे द्विपक्षीय परस्परसंबंध अतिशय किचकट आहेत. जसजसे हे देश अधिक बळकट होतील, तसतसा त्यांच्यातल्या संपर्क हा साहजिकच वाढेल. बहुपक्षीय तसेच वैश्विक पातळीवर देखील त्...

from ChinaDaily Building Sustainable Peace; An Agenda for India China Military Dialogue With the visit of a high level Indian defence delegation to Beijing, India and China are set to resume their military dialogue. This is a confidence building step expected to be followed by the fourth level of their bilateral defence dialogue since it began in 2007. Lot of anxious watchers are following this development closely, from all around the world and from all quarters of the society, since this round of dialogue is taking place at an extremely critical juncture. Despite the three dialogues before, and notwithstanding multiple meetings between the leadership of the two countries, the 2011 defence dialogue will take place under the shadow of recent history. Therefore, it would be a first success of the 2011 dialogue if the two sides agree to avoid recurrence of the kind of instances that took the bilateral relations to their lowest level in the last decade. It will ensure that the future...

MAP from IDR China's Kashmir Calculus: Alternative Explanations China's new approach to Kashmir is not surprising. India has equal right to reciprocate China's behaviour. However any action before explaining the Chinese behaviour  in its entirety would be counterproductive. China's behaviour can be understood from three perspectives. My recently published article on the Blog, The Broad Mind .

Does China's Economic Power translate into Great Power Status? Below is the full version of the article I published in  September  2010 on Opinion  Asia. Since the website is not  functional  any more, sharing it with the readers of this blog. I welcome your comments on this idea! In the recent times, the news of People’s Republic of China becoming the World’s second largest economy in terms of GDP has caught the imagination of observers of China. If the predictions are to be true, then China will become the world’s largest economy sometime in the next couple of decades. Whether about something good or bad, numbers and statistic about the People’s Republic have always been awe-inspiring. However, the question that could and should be asked at this important juncture is about the meaning of these numbers. Since there are many caveats to the present China rise theory, the ability of the economic status to transform China into a great power has been ques...

A Year since Xinjiang Riots: Regional Consequences 5 th July marked the first anniversary of the ethnic riots in Urumqi, capital of China’s Xinjiang province that is home to the minority Muslim ethnicity Uighurs. These riots had highlighted the disharmony in the People’s Republic that has projected the idea of harmony in every imaginable field. Therefore, the ethnic riot in which about two hundred people lost their lives was a big embarrassment for the leadership of China. Besides the domestic policy implications, the 2009 riots have had serious implications for China’s foreign relations in Asia. Part of the Chinese strategy in Xinjiang is rapid economic development, which the leadership feels would become the driver of peace and stability in the region. This was clearly articulated in the White Paper on Xinjiang that came out after the riots of July 2009. At the same time, geographically Xinjiang is at a location that is critical for China’s relations with Central Asia and South As...