avinash.godbole

Narendra Modi's visit to Mongolia was the first by an Indian PM.  Here are my talking points on that visit from a meeting-presentation. India was the first country to recognise Mongolia apart from the Soviet Bloc Mongolia was the cosponsor of the UN resolution in 1972, along with Bhutan and India, that recognised Bangladesh. India’s first Ambassador in Mongolia was Sonam Norboo, hailing from Ladak ------------------------------------ Mongolia is also seeking to expand its foreign relations with countries other than China and Russia under the policy of “Third Neighbour”. During most of the 20th century, Mongolia, due to its close links to Moscow, was said to be a country in Eastern Europe, not East Asia, where it is geographically positioned. 90 percent of Mongolian exports, most of it minerals, copper, gold, uranium and coal, go to China. China has always pressurized Mongolia for its relations with the dalai Lama, during his last visit in 2011, China lodged strong pro...

पंतप्रधान नरेंद्र मोदी यांनी १४ ते १६ मे असे तीन दिवस चीनचा दौरा केला. ह्या दौऱ्यात अनेक असे महत्वपूर्ण करार झाले ज्यामुळे भारत आणि चीन मधील आर्थिक संबंध मजबूत होतील.  मोदींच्या दौऱ्यात भारत आणि चीनने एकूण २४ सामंजस्य कार्रंवार स्वाक्षऱ्या केल्या ज्याचे एकूण आर्थिक मूल्य २२०० करोड़ इतकी आहे. एकूणच चीन पुढच्या काही वर्षात इतकी गुंतवणूक भारतात करेल. गेल्या एक वर्षात मोदी सरकारने एक सकारात्मक आणि क्रियाशील विदेशनीती अवलंबिली असून चीन, मंगोलिया आणि दक्षिण कोरियाचा दौरा ह्या नव्या विदेश नितिची उदाहरणे आहेत. ह्या अधि मोदिंनी  नेपाल, भूटान, जापान, ऑस्ट्रेलिया, अमेरिका, कॅनडा, श्रीलंका, मॉरिशस इत्यादि देशांना भेट दिली होती.   चीन हा भारतचा सर्वात शक्तिशाली शेजारी देश आहे आणि एक वैश्विक महासत्ता आहे . पण भारत चीन सम्बन्ध १९६२ च्या युद्धच्या सावलीतून अजूनही बाहेर आलेले नहित. तसेच सिमा रेशा वाद आणि अक्साई चीन आणि मैकमोहन लाइन विषयीचा वाद अजूनही पूर्णतः सुटलेला नही. तसेच दोन्ही देश सामरिक दृष्टया शक्तिशाली आहेत. त्यामुळे एकूणच सम्बन्ध गुंतागुं...

Barack Obama, President of the United States of America, will be in India as the Chief Guest for Republic Day celebrations. He will be the first US President to be invited as the Republic Day chief guest and his recent predecessors have been Prime Minster Abe of Japan, King Jigme Wangchuck of Bhutan, Prime Minister Shinawatra from Thailand, President Susilo Yudhoyono of Indonesia and President Lee Myung Bak from South Korea. The series of Asian heads of state being invited in the recent past reflects India’s closer ties across Asian countries eastward of India. Now India’s invitation to President Obama reflects the high importance India accords to the US and its sense of urgency in recasting the India US relations. This can also be seen as an extension of India’s Act East policy as the Pacific Ocean makes the US an integral actor in East Asia as well. Thus, right from the moment being announced in the social media by Prime Minister Modi, this upcoming visit has created a lot of ant...

The Indian voters have given an unprecedented mandate to the BJP led NDA in the 2014 general elections. And now India will have a new government on 26 May when Narendra Modi will take oath as the next Prime Minister. I have written two articles on the agenda for the next government on foreign policy and defence policy in two marathi news papers. I welcome your comments on these articles.

भारतासह ब्राझील, रशिया आणि चीनचा समावेश असलेल्या ‘ब्रिक्स’ गटाची  परिषद आजपासून नवी दिल्लीत सुरू होते आहे. ही परिषद महत्त्वाची आहे का, आणि त्यातून काय साधणार, याबद्दल एका अभ्यासकाची ही निरीक्षणे..   ब्राझील, रशिया, भारत आणि चीन या चार देशांच्या ‘ब्रिक्स’ या गटाची चौथी शिखर परिषद आता नवी दिल्लीत होत आहे. भारतात अशी परिषद प्रथमच होत असली तरी केवळ तेवढय़ाचेच अप्रूप नाही. चीनमधील सन्या शहरात गेल्या वर्षी झालेल्या शिखर परिषदेत ‘ब्रिक्स’चे वाढते महत्त्व दिसून आले आहे आणि बहुसांस्कृतिक (निव्वळ पाश्चात्त्यांचे वर्चस्व मानणे इतिहासजमा झाल्यानंतरच्या) जगातील एक महत्त्वाचा गट ही ‘ब्रिक्स’ची ओळख यापुढेही वाढत जाणार, हेही स्पष्ट झाले आहे. अशा राष्ट्र-गटांना अनेकदा त्यांच्या भू-राजकीय भूमिकांमुळे महत्त्व असते, तसे तर ‘ब्रिक्स’ला आहेच; परंतु जगातील बदलत्या आर्थिक स्थितीमुळे / वातावरणामुळे ‘ब्रिक्स’ देशांचे महत्त्व वाढले आणि वाढणार आहे.  Summary of my article published in Loksatta on 26 March 2012. The complete article is available here.

For a long time now, India and People’s Republic of China have had uneasy bilateral relationship. In addition to the conflicted history, instances in the recent past have made it extremely difficult for both the countries to set the terms of relationships in place so that the relationship could be taken forward. Instead, what the two have had are the events that have threatened to derail any form of momentum without warning. From the news of trans-boundary intrusions to the denial of proper visas to the residents of Jammu and Kashmir to the denial of any form of visa to the Indian Army’s northern commander, and to an Indian Air Force officer from Arunachal Pradesh in the recent past, China has undertaken activities that have time and again challenged India’s sovereignty by acting against the norms of good international conduct. Consequently, each time the highest leadership has met in the recent past, they have only worked as firefighters by saying that despite repeated acts of bell...

साऊथ चीन समुदामध्ये व्हिएतनाम आणि ओएनजीसी विदेशच्या तेल संशोधन कार्यामुळे आपली स्वायत्तता भंग होत आहे, असा कांगावा चीनने सुरू केला आहे. धमकीवजा इशारेही दिले जात आहेत. परिणामी सुधारणेच्या दिशेने वाटचाल करणाऱ्या भारत-चीन संबंधांना पुन्हा नकारात्मक दिशा मिळण्याचा धोका दिसत आहे.  ................  साऊथ चीन समुदामध्ये विएतनाम आणि ह्रहृत्नष्ट विदेशच्या तेल संशोधन आणि विकसन कार्यामुळे आपली स्वायत्तता भंग होत आहे, असा कांगावा चीनने सुरू केला आहे. त्याचप्रमाणे, चीनच्या Global Times या राष्ट्रवादी वर्तमानपत्राने, 'या क्षेत्रात कार्यरत होणाऱ्या अन्य पक्षांना गंभीर परिणामांना सामोरे जावे लागेल, असा धमकीवजा इशारा असलेला लेख छापला आहे. ह्या सर्व गोष्टींमुळे सुधारणेच्या दिशेने वाटचाल करणाऱ्या भारत-चीन संबंधांना पुन्हा नकारात्मक दिशा मिळण्याचा धोका दिसत आहे. आजच्या परिस्थितीत भारत आणि चीन हे अतिशय वेगाने वाढणारे देश आहेत आणि त्यांचे द्विपक्षीय परस्परसंबंध अतिशय किचकट आहेत. जसजसे हे देश अधिक बळकट होतील, तसतसा त्यांच्यातल्या संपर्क हा साहजिकच वाढेल. बहुपक्षीय तसेच वैश्विक पातळीवर देखील त्...

from ChinaDaily Building Sustainable Peace; An Agenda for India China Military Dialogue With the visit of a high level Indian defence delegation to Beijing, India and China are set to resume their military dialogue. This is a confidence building step expected to be followed by the fourth level of their bilateral defence dialogue since it began in 2007. Lot of anxious watchers are following this development closely, from all around the world and from all quarters of the society, since this round of dialogue is taking place at an extremely critical juncture. Despite the three dialogues before, and notwithstanding multiple meetings between the leadership of the two countries, the 2011 defence dialogue will take place under the shadow of recent history. Therefore, it would be a first success of the 2011 dialogue if the two sides agree to avoid recurrence of the kind of instances that took the bilateral relations to their lowest level in the last decade. It will ensure that the future...

MAP from IDR China's Kashmir Calculus: Alternative Explanations China's new approach to Kashmir is not surprising. India has equal right to reciprocate China's behaviour. However any action before explaining the Chinese behaviour  in its entirety would be counterproductive. China's behaviour can be understood from three perspectives. My recently published article on the Blog, The Broad Mind .

A Year since Xinjiang Riots: Regional Consequences 5 th July marked the first anniversary of the ethnic riots in Urumqi, capital of China’s Xinjiang province that is home to the minority Muslim ethnicity Uighurs. These riots had highlighted the disharmony in the People’s Republic that has projected the idea of harmony in every imaginable field. Therefore, the ethnic riot in which about two hundred people lost their lives was a big embarrassment for the leadership of China. Besides the domestic policy implications, the 2009 riots have had serious implications for China’s foreign relations in Asia. Part of the Chinese strategy in Xinjiang is rapid economic development, which the leadership feels would become the driver of peace and stability in the region. This was clearly articulated in the White Paper on Xinjiang that came out after the riots of July 2009. At the same time, geographically Xinjiang is at a location that is critical for China’s relations with Central Asia and South As...

Contradictory Tendencies in the India-China Relationship: Does it help the bilateral relationship? In the last one year, India and China have had a contradictory relationship. And in more ways than one, what happened in the last one year epitomises the future of the relationship between the two countries. On the one hand, trade and investment figures are touching a new high each year, bilateral visits and interactions at multiple levels have increased manifold, trust on each other’s activities and intentions in multilateral forums is at a never seen before high. At the same time, bilaterally, there has been a gradual downswing since for the first time the Chinese Ambassador to India claimed Arunachal Pradesh as part of China in late 2006. Add to it the list of cross border intrusions by the Chinese forces, the media outcry in India over the intrusions, the role of Chinese media over the Dalai Lama and Chinese media’s ignorance about the nature of Indian media, the picture becomes as g...

अफ़ग़ानिस्तान   शांति   प्रक्रिया :   अपेक्षा   और   विकल्प (my article in HIndi, to be published soon, sorry for the language but this is the best I could do!) अफ़ग़ानिस्तान मे आतंकवाद के खिलाफ चल रहा युद्ध आब अंतिम चरण मे आ गया है और आनेवाले अधिकतम दो वर्षोमे इसका समाधान अपेक्षित है . अमरीकी युध ने एक और बार यह स्पष्ता किया है के कोई भी अफ़ग़ानिस्तान मे आकर लड़ सकता है लेकिन वहाँ जीतना लगभग नामुमकिन है . अमरीकाकी निष्कास कूटनीति इस एक कटु सत्य का विवरण है . इतिहास बताता है कि अफ़ग़ानिस्तान का भौगोलिक स्थान उस देशकी राजनीतिक स्थिरता के लिए एक अभिशाप बन गया है और   आधुनिक आंतरराष्ट्रीय राजनीति के समय मे उसे यहा स्थिरता नहीं मिल पाई है . अब यहा सवाल सबसे बड़ा है के क्या अमरीकी निष्कास के बाद इस युद्धसे बेजार राष्ट्रको स्थिरता प्राप्त होगी या फिरसे अराजकता नियंत्रण लेगी ? शान्ती प्रक्रियामे रूचि रखनेवालो के लिए आज अराजकता की आशंका ...