Obama's East Asia Wish List
The President of the United States, Barak Obama is visiting various countries in East & Southeast Asia from the 13th of November 2009. That he chose East Asia as his first stop in Asia as the US President underlines the importance of the region for his regime and for the United States as such. At its basic, Obama’s Asia visit has three major agenda points; North Korea, trade imbalance and trade war with Japan and China and the future of Climate Change.
Besides these issues of immediate importance, there are other issues of particular American interest in East Asia. Obama will try to reassert the importance of the American military umbrella for the region, something which is being doubted by the present day Japan under the newly elected Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. The Democratic Party of Japan has signalled its wish for a more independent foreign policy. In the first few days of the Hatoyama government, the US has shown some flexibility vis-à-vis Japan when it agreed to Japan’s stoppage of refuelling in the Indian Ocean. How the relations progress on the Futenma airbase in Okinawa which is opposed by many in Japan will decide the future course of relations between the two countries. Thus, Obama’s visit will focus on ironing out the difference of expectations of DPJ led Japan and the US on each other’s role in the region. Obama will hope to sort it out early as he would not want it to reflect on other aspects of cooperation like climate change, North Korea and trade relations which are equally important for the two.
As mentioned above, North Korea’s aggressive posturing, its nuclear test earlier this year and attempted missile test does not augur well for normalisation of tensions in Asia. It’s unlikely that US would attack North Korea since there is little to gain from a direct confrontation with the belligerent regime of Kim Jong il. However, given the rise in the nuisance value of North Korea, exemplified by its recent skirmish with the South Korean Navy, the world wants it to come to the Six Party talks as soon as possible. Facilitating this reengagement of North Korea and ending of provocative language is one of the immediate objectives of the trip.
The North Korean issue will be discussed in Tokyo and also in Beijing. More than any other group, the Communist Party of China enjoys the trust of the North Korean regime. China also has its stakes in the engagement with the North Korean regime and its stability since it shares a long border. In Beijing, Obama would be keen to hear the Chinese perspectives on handling the question of North Korea.
Second item on Obama’s Beijing itinerary would be the relations with the People’s Republic of China. China is extremely important for US; politically as well as economically. Under Obama, US-China relations have been mixed, although more positive than negative. There have been talks of G2 comprising US and China as the driving force behind the world economy which shows their closeness but at the same time China has accused US of increased protectionist behaviour when it increased import duties on Chinese tyres. It has also accused US, although less formally, of harbouring secessionist Rabiya Kadder and her supporters. There is also speculation whether Obama will touch the issue of human rights of minorities in Xinjiang and in Tibet since the memories of the July 5 riots of Urumqi are still fresh. However, it looks unlikely as the geopolitical reality has changed significantly since the global economic meltdown. Even when Hilary Clinton visited China earlier this year as Secretary of State, she was tight-lipped on the issue of human rights.
On the subject of climate change, the US and China have a bilateral understanding but both are noncommittal on emission reductions for some reason or other. Much of the Copenhagen success will depend on what approach the two countries take on the subject. Obama has been trying to get some support for his domestic initiatives on mitigation front. He will have to engage China more meaningfully on the issue of climate change if he wishes to see the bill passed in the Senate where democrats are well short of the required numbers because his domestic constituency is not convinced of his ability to take his climate agenda outside the US. At the same time, he will also have to convince China that the American climate bill will not harm China by imposing trade restrictions.
Obama’s East Asia trip is important also from the point that this is the first one since the American markets crashed last year. American recovery has been fuelled partly by the continued trust shown by East Asia in the American treasury bonds. Obama will try to convince the regional leaders abut the trajectory of recovery in the American economy when he meets ASEAN leaders in Singapore.
Obama’s idea of hope has generated a lot of optimism about his ability to bring about positive change on the idea of United States. As far as East Asia is concerned, Obama himself will rely on the hope that his wish list comes true in the desired timeframe as it would redefine the role of the United States vis-à-vis East Asia in the changing world order.
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