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| Optimism must translate into action |
Li Keqiang, Premier of People’s Republic
of China’s State Council visited India during 19-22 May 2013. This was the
first step in Premier Li’s first foreign tour after assuming the office in
March this year and the Chinese media and officials, among others, highlighted
the fact that he chose India as his first stop. Many are willing to consider
this alongside Preside Xi Jinping’s first state visit to Moscow after becoming
the President to treat as a decided shift in China’s global priorities or at
least as a rise of a new perspective in Chinese foreign policy. In undertaking
this visit, the Chinese Premier has also overlooked the protocol as it was
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s turn to visit China after Wen Jiabao had
visited India in December 2010 to commemorate the 60th Anniversary
of the diplomatic contact between the two countries.
However, this kind of attention to India
does little to improve the bilateral relationship as little has happened that
would translate this warmth into anything more substantial as well as lasting.
Instead, this visit has further highlighted the perception gap between the
strategic thinking of the two. High
on symbolism and short on substance, Li Keqiang's India visit ended as such
without achieving much sustainable. Except for showcasing the brownie point
that Li chose India for his first official trip abroad, there is little that
will have changed in the course of India China relations as a consequence of
this visit.
In addition, coming in the aftermath of
the Daulat Beg Oldi standoff that reminded of the Sumdorong Chu incidents of
1987 and the pre-1962 situation, this visit has done little to assure the Indian
leadership of not repeating such incident or of the short and long term Chinese
peaceful interest in South Asia. Now that the visit is over without anything
unpleasant, it is a sigh of relief for the Chinese (and Indian) political
leadership. On the other hand, the China has avoided an embarrassment for
itself by settling the DBO aggression in time as India had threatened to call
off the Premier’s visit and the External Affairs Minister’s visit to China
before that. Had Premier Li's visit been cancelled, it would have been a major
diplomatic blow as it wound have not only further increased India's regional
profile as a rising player but also
would have firmed the belief of China being a confrontational power.
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| slowing growth, (From Economist) |
At another level, given the structure of
Li’s itinerary on this trip, avoiding India and still continuing with the rest
of the program would have been a major diplomatic faux pas. This is because Li
Keqiang could not have visited Pakistan without the India stopover. Premier Li
was travelling with an economic itinerary and despite nearly $10 billion drop,
India China bilateral trade still stood at $66 billion whereas China Pakistan
bilateral trade is at $12 billion. India has much more to offer to the new
leadership's socio-economic plans in China than Pakistan ever could.
Indeed, Li's other stops in Europe,
Germany and Switzerland are also about China's domestic economic concerns.
Having grown comfortably at about 10 percent per year for a substantial period
of time, present day Chinese economy would struggle to achieve 7 percent
without the stimulus. Also linked are the issues of regional, class and ethnic
inequalities and the ultimate hanging sword of stability that the leadership
hopes to pacify by course correction in its economy while at the same time
sustaining its momentum. Thus, China needs economic engagement with the world's
leading economies more than ever.
Despite high hopes and slogans, India
China trade has not blossomed as expected. India hopes to get more access to
Chinese markets in areas of pharmaceuticals, IT and ITES industries and similar
areas in which restrictions remain. The $10 billion drop in the recent times
has come in the backdrop of dwindling political confidence. while India has
looked to partner dynamic economy of coastal China, In his public speech in
Delhi, Li Keqiang has offered India a partnership in its western development
strategy via improvements in trans-border trade which he mentioned on three
separate instances.
In Pakistan, China's newer interest is
about Afghanistan after the US withdrawal and protecting Chinese interests
there. China will like to transfer the mineral and other riches from
Afghanistan using Pakistan and PoK routes into Xinjiang. It could also use
Pakistan's influence in safeguarding its investment interests in Afghanistan
while for Pakistan's energy starved economy, China could provide an helping
hand via mutually beneficial electricity and infrastructure development
deals.
In Germany, Li attention was on tax
restrictions on Chinese telecom and solar products, double taxation issues and
the Eurozone crisis. Allegations of dumping
and anti-dumping probes have rocked the blooming Eu-China trade. On the
other hand China is discussing FTA with Switzerland and has started the initial
discussions on this subject with the Swiss agencies.
Thus, Li Keqiang charted his first
global itinerary with his sight firmly set on the domestic economic challenges.
That the DBO standoff happened before it cast a shadow on the visit and also
raised hopes for a political dialogue which was not to be. The strategic
consensus that Premier Li and Chinese media stressed did not sizzle much in
Delhi. Premier Li and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's joint press conference is
a telling example of where the differences lie at the moment; while Li Keqiang
spoke of the strategic consensus on regional and global issues, Prime Minister
Singh highlighted tranquility on the border, correcting trade deficit and water
issues as precondition to improving bilateral relations. major issues. All in
all, the handshake across Himalayas will have to wait until there is a
convergence of perceptions on what comes first.
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