Barack Obama, President of the United States
of America, will be in India as the Chief Guest for Republic Day celebrations.
He will be the first US President to be invited as the Republic Day chief guest
and his recent predecessors have been Prime Minster Abe of Japan, King Jigme
Wangchuck of Bhutan, Prime Minister Shinawatra from Thailand, President Susilo
Yudhoyono of Indonesia and President Lee Myung Bak from South Korea. The series
of Asian heads of state being invited in the recent past reflects India’s
closer ties across Asian countries eastward of India. Now India’s invitation to
President Obama reflects the high importance India accords to the US and its
sense of urgency in recasting the India US relations. This can also be seen as
an extension of India’s Act East policy as the Pacific Ocean makes the US an
integral actor in East Asia as well.
Thus, right from the moment being announced
in the social media by Prime Minister Modi, this upcoming visit has created a
lot of anticipation and expectations about the future of India US relations are
as high as it could get. However, beyond the photo opportunities, for this
visit to be memorable the attention will have to be on deliverables and
timeframes. Over the last decade, India US relations have been largely
rhetorical despite the Indo-US nuclear deal. Subsequent events like the 26/11
and the participation of the US national and allegedly spy in that was a
significant event, so has been the Nuclear Liability Bill that the US and
others believe has delayed investments into India. US has often suggested India
dilute the Bill to facilitate more American investments in the field of nuclear
energy whereas India has said that it is unlikely to happen. India is also yet
to ratify the Brussels Supplementary Convention that Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh had promised when President Obama visited last in 2010. Thus the nearly
10-year-old bilateral deal has not turned into nuclear technology or material
trade between India and the US. On the other hand, India feels that while the
US seeks synergy with India on the East Asian front, it does not pay adequate
attention to the Indian concerns in South Asia, particularly with reference to
the evolving situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In particular, the US
decision to release $532 million to Pakistan within days of the 2008 Mumbai
Attacks’ mastermind being released is not likely to please Delhi. In addition,
the usual challenge of H1-B visa restrictions that hurt Indian companies and
their business in the US will again come up for discussion as the recent
indicators suggest. So the efforts to arrest the drift in the bilateral
relations is not without hurdles.
Prime Minister Modi’s first official visit
to the US in September 2014 had two components; first being to personally
connect with his Indian American well wishers who had also generously funded
his campaign for the 2014 elections, the second was to connect with the
establishment including the President. His rockstar receptions and the joint
editorial with President Obama as well as the comprehensive joint statements
had showcased that these objectives were well achieved. Now is the time to put
the mantra of “Chalein Saath Saath: Forward Together We Go”, highlighted in the
joint statement of September 2014, into practice.
Towards the preparation of the important
Presidential visit, the US Secretary of State John Kerry visited India as US
representative for the Vibrant Gujarat Summit where he also met Prime Minister
Modi. Nisha Desai Biswal, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central
Asia also visited India earlier in November 2014 to fine tune the details of
President Obama’s visit. Kerry’s participation in Gandhinagar was seen as the
US interest in participating in Prime Minister Modi’s make in India campaign.
Now, with two key reforms in land and labour
laws in place, making them more investor friendly, the American business
community is likely to turn towards India for its investments. It is no surprise then that a big American
CEOs delegation will accompany India just like a substantial number of Indian
CEOs joined Prime Minister Modi’s delegation to the US.
US had also readily agreed to participate in
the smart city project promoted by the Indian Prime Minister by becoming the
lead partner in developing Ajmer, Vishakhapatnam and Allahabad. In addition,
the USAID is going to be a knowledge partner in urban sanitation, water and
hygiene projects as part of India’s National Urban Development Mission and
Clean India Mission. Clean energy is another area where technology cooperation
agreement is likely to take place.
India wants the Make in India campaign to be
emulated in the field of defense cooperation. By doing so, increases military
capability will be simultaneously helpful in enhancing India’s defense
technology industry, by joint research and production plans and technology
transfers. India seeks the preset offset policy to help create business and
employment domestically as well as to encourage greater science and technology
research by stimulating demand from the industry for qualified personnel
thereby attracting talent in this field. While there may be initial hurdles,
this will be a big test for what is always referred to as creating “win-win”
situations in bilateral economic engagement. Therefore, India will and must
resist calls for diluting the offset and FDI policy in defense as this is the
only way to create long term solutions for India’s defense equipment and
technology import dependence.
While India and the US share broad agreement
over the state of affairs of the global order as well as on the state of their
bilateral relations, they have realized over the course of the last decade that
they are not on the same page as far as the finer details and the methods to achieve
their intended outcomes are concerned. The devil, as they say, is in the
detail. Towards that end, President Obama’s India visit should help the two
countries work out the finer details and help operationalize the India US
strategic and economic partnership after years of promising starts.
(Avinash Godbole is Research Assistant with the IDSA and the opinions
expressed here are completely personal)
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